Forecasts for 2026: will spending increase?
General context
In 2025, Australians spend over AUD 20 billion annually on slot machines, and the upward trend in spending is clear. The question is what will be 2026: will the growth continue, or the market will reach a plateau. For evaluation, it is necessary to take into account a combination of economic, technological and social factors.
Economic component
Inflation: if the inflation rate remains at 3-4% per annum, the average spending per session will increase nominally, even if the frequency of player visits does not change.
Real incomes of the population: with wages rising above inflation, spending on gambling is likely to increase; if revenues stagnate, players can shift behavior towards minimum bets and budget sessions.
Technological factors
Growth of mobile gambling: the share of deposits through mobile applications and browser versions of slots will increase, which on average increases the frequency and total costs.
Innovative mechanics: the introduction of fast slots and advanced auto-play stimulates turnover growth due to an accelerated betting cycle.
Progressive jackpots: Their popularity will grow, increasing both the number of deposits and the average check.
Social and behavioral changes
Generational differences: young players (18-29 years old) show an increase in involvement in mobile and online slots, while older groups more often adhere to clubs and offline halls.
Bonus systems: strengthening loyalty programs and VIP programs will lead to an increase in repeated deposits.
Regulatory factors
Australian authorities may introduce tighter limits on bets and deposit restrictions in online casinos. If this happens in 2026, spending growth will slow.
In the offline sector, radical changes are unlikely, since taxes and fees from machines form a significant part of regional budgets.
Forecast by progress
Baseline scenario: spending growth by 3-5% by 2025 due to inflation and an increase in the online segment.
Optimistic scenario: growth by 7-10% if household incomes grow faster than inflation, and mobile casinos expand supply.
A restrictive scenario: stagnation or growth not exceeding 1-2% if strict limits on deposits and rates are introduced.
Result
With a high probability in 2026, Australians' spending on slot machines will continue to grow, mainly due to inflation and market digitalization. The main driver will be online and mobile casinos, while the offline sector will remain stable.
In 2025, Australians spend over AUD 20 billion annually on slot machines, and the upward trend in spending is clear. The question is what will be 2026: will the growth continue, or the market will reach a plateau. For evaluation, it is necessary to take into account a combination of economic, technological and social factors.
Economic component
Inflation: if the inflation rate remains at 3-4% per annum, the average spending per session will increase nominally, even if the frequency of player visits does not change.
Real incomes of the population: with wages rising above inflation, spending on gambling is likely to increase; if revenues stagnate, players can shift behavior towards minimum bets and budget sessions.
Technological factors
Growth of mobile gambling: the share of deposits through mobile applications and browser versions of slots will increase, which on average increases the frequency and total costs.
Innovative mechanics: the introduction of fast slots and advanced auto-play stimulates turnover growth due to an accelerated betting cycle.
Progressive jackpots: Their popularity will grow, increasing both the number of deposits and the average check.
Social and behavioral changes
Generational differences: young players (18-29 years old) show an increase in involvement in mobile and online slots, while older groups more often adhere to clubs and offline halls.
Bonus systems: strengthening loyalty programs and VIP programs will lead to an increase in repeated deposits.
Regulatory factors
Australian authorities may introduce tighter limits on bets and deposit restrictions in online casinos. If this happens in 2026, spending growth will slow.
In the offline sector, radical changes are unlikely, since taxes and fees from machines form a significant part of regional budgets.
Forecast by progress
Baseline scenario: spending growth by 3-5% by 2025 due to inflation and an increase in the online segment.
Optimistic scenario: growth by 7-10% if household incomes grow faster than inflation, and mobile casinos expand supply.
A restrictive scenario: stagnation or growth not exceeding 1-2% if strict limits on deposits and rates are introduced.
Result
With a high probability in 2026, Australians' spending on slot machines will continue to grow, mainly due to inflation and market digitalization. The main driver will be online and mobile casinos, while the offline sector will remain stable.
