Spending level versus slot volatility
1) What is slot volatility
Low volatility - frequent but small wins; bankroll lasts longer, the player feels "reinforced" in almost every session.
Average volatility - balance: wins less often, but more tangible.
High volatility - rare but large payouts; long runs with no wins, then strong "picks."
Formally, volatility reflects the variance of the distribution of winnings with the same RTP (mat. waiting to return). Two slots can have the same RTP of 96%, but very different session dynamics.
2) Mechanism of influence on spending
Low volatility slots: keep the player due to frequent small reinforcements; the player plays longer within the original budget, the expense is more uniform, the average loss is closer to the "mathematical expectation."
High volatility slots: stimulate catching up behavior, lead to frequent overloads after long "dry" batches. Losses are less predictable, but the average costs of active players are usually higher due to faster and larger drawdowns.
Variance effect: the higher the spread of outcomes, the higher the likelihood of "atypical" losses in the short horizon - this increases psychological stress and the tendency to violate their own limits.
3) Typical behavioral patterns
1. Recreational players: Select low- and mid-range slots; the budget is spent more slowly, spending is moderate.
2. Gambling/risk segment: gravitate towards high volatility for large winnings; on average spend more due to dogon and rapid losses.
3. "High rollers": prefer high variance content, where you can quickly increase or lose large amounts; spending is concentrated in short, high-stakes sessions.
4. Transitional behavior: some players start on low volatility, then look for a "big gain" and shift to riskier slots.
4) Metrics to assess the impact of volatility on spending
Average expense per session by volatility levels.
Average session length and number of spins before bankroll zeroing.
Share of players with reloads and average number of reloads.
Loss distribution: median vs. upper quantiles (P90-P99).
Percentage of players exceeding personal limits based on slot type.
5) Empirical patterns
On low volatility slots, spending is closer to predicted: the player spends a conditional $50 per evening, receiving ~ hour of play.
On high volatility slots, the same amount can go away in 10-15 minutes with an unsuccessful series. As a result, the average spending per month is higher for the players involved.
The share of the "top 5% in terms of expenses" is noticeably higher among fans of high volatility - they provide a disproportionate contribution to total spending.
In the high variance cohorts, markers of problematic behavior are more often recorded: an increase in the frequency of visits, night sessions, ignoring notifications.
6) How it relates to the How Much Australians Spend in 2025 section
In 2025, Australia recorded an increase in the share of spending on high volatility slots: these products are more often chosen by involved and high-rollers.
Average spending of the population is growing moderately, but the structure is shifting: "heavy players" on volatile slots form a disproportionately large part of the turnover.
For a correct analysis of expenses in 2025, it is important to take into account not only RTP and rates, but also the volatility of the content: it is she who determines the actual speed of spending and the distribution of losses.
7) Practical model
Expected loss:- $$
- L \approx B \times R \times T \times h
- $$
(where $ B $ is the bet, $ R $ is the speed of the game, $ T $ is the duration, $ h $ is the mat. advantage).
Impact of volatility:- With low volatility, $ T $ is higher (bankroll lives longer), additional loads are rare.
- With high volatility, $ T $ is lower, but the number of overloads increases, which increases the total $ L $.
- Therefore, the total spending is not equal to the mathematical expectation × 1 session, but depends on the frequency of additional deposits, which are provoked by volatility.
8) Conclusions
Volatility directly affects the dynamics and level of spending.
Low volatility → stable, projected expenses, lower risk of exceeding limits.
High volatility → fast and large drawdowns, frequent overloads, higher average spending and concentration of expenses among top players.
In 2025, an analysis of Australian spending on slot machines should consider the structure of content volatility, not just absolute limits and bets.
